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By late September 2026, oil shipments from the Gulf states had returned to pre-Iran-war levels.
False
Accuracy: False. The claim overstates the evidence. Kpler/BBC says in the final week of September daily oil flow from the Middle East reached 92% of its pre-war baseline—"almost returned," not fully returned. Evidence also shows only 12 million bpd moved through Hormuz versus 17 million pre-war, with some offset by pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers. That supports near-recovery by late September 2026, but not a full return to pre-war levels as stated.
Verdict confidence: 94/100. The key evidence directly says late-September Middle East oil flow was 92% of its pre-war baseline and had "almost returned," not fully returned. Additional figures show Hormuz transit remained below baseline, with recovery relying on rerouting and transfers rather than full restoration. [S5P1][S5P2][S5P3] Method: verdict-evidence-v1. Not a calibrated probability.