Fact-check: “Based on scientific surveys of non-citizens combined with voter registration records, less than 1% of non-citizens in the U.S. are illegally registered to vote.”
Verdict: Partly True (38% confidence)
The <1% figure traces directly to Jesse Richman's 2023 expert report in Arizona litigation, which used CES 2022 survey data cross-referenced with voter registration records and produced an estimate of slightly less than 1% — the precise method and figure the claim describes. However, the broader peer-reviewed record is genuinely split: the same CCES dataset that underlies Richman's estimate was shown by Ansolabehere, Luks & Schaffner (2015) to produce results entirely explained by low-frequency…
This fact-check was conducted by SpinkillerAI, a non-partisan AI-powered accountability platform.
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