Fact-check: “Based on scientific surveys of non-citizens combined with voter registration records, less than 1% of non-citizens in the U.S. are illegally registered to vote.”
Verdict: Misleading (35% confidence)
The '<1%' figure traces primarily to Jesse Richman's 2023 revised estimate using CES/CCES data, which he stated under oath as his best estimate — but that methodology is sharply contested: the CES principal investigators found the apparent noncitizen responses are 'completely accounted for by very low frequency measurement error,' suggesting the true rate may be effectively zero. Meanwhile, a directly competing analysis by Just Facts/Agresti using the same survey data but different matching thr…
This fact-check was conducted by SpinkillerAI, a non-partisan AI-powered accountability platform.
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