Full Intelligence Report: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/mirage-chinas-military-edge-dennis-blair (2024-07-01 to 2026-07-01)

A fundamental question about military readiness in the Pacific hangs on one straightforward appraisal: how much of China's apparent military advantage is real, and how much is contingent on factors that might not hold in an actual conflict. The answer shapes whether deterrence rests on credible cost-imposition or on hope. A June 2026 Foreign Affairs essay by Dennis C. Blair, former U.S. intelligence director, presents one answer: China's military superiority is "a mirage," offset by Taiwan's geography and the logistical nightmare of amphibious assault. Blair stated on June 23, 2026: "China'…

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  • Full intelligence reports — comprehensive reports covering all tracked voices with executive summaries
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